Brokerages Raise Seoul Stock Forecasts After 40% Surge This Year
Nomura has become the first brokerage to predict the KOSPI will reach 8,000 in the first half of the year, establishing a new benchmark for targets as South Korea’s key stock index continues its record-breaking rally.
Nomura Financial Investment, the Seoul-based arm of Japan’s Nomura Holdings, increased its first-half projection to 7,500 in a base scenario and 8,000 in a more optimistic scenario, according to a report released on Monday. This suggests potential gains of approximately 27 percent to 36 percent from the current level of 5,900 over the next four months.
Cindy Park, Nomura’s head of Korea research, identified stronger earnings in the memory sector and improved corporate value as primary factors driving the upgrade. Memory companies are expected to contribute over 60 percent of South Korea’s total net profit this year, positioning them as central to earnings growth. She also noted that successful implementation of corporate governance reforms could reduce the Korea discount and unlock further potential.
The projection of 8,000 comes as brokerages both domestically and internationally are consistently raising their forecasts amid the market’s rapid growth. After closing 2025 at 4,214, the KOSPI surpassed 5,000 intraday for the first time on January 22nd and has since exceeded 5,900, overcoming volatility associated with tech earnings concerns and geopolitical risks.
On Tuesday, the index extended its gains to a new intraday high of 5,965.87, bringing its year-to-date increase to nearly 42 percent. A day earlier, it broke through the 5,900 mark for the first time, concluding a four-day rally of over 7 percent.
Chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remained the primary drivers, with both reaching record highs on Tuesday. Samsung surpassed 200,000 won, while SK hynix exceeded 1 million won for the first time, reflecting increases of approximately 67 percent and 54 percent, respectively, from their year-end levels.
With momentum showing no signs of slowing, strategists are increasingly turning their attention to 7,000. Kiwoom Securities raised its upper-end forecast to 7,300 from 6,000 on Tuesday, stating that surpassing 6,000 is now a matter of when, not if.
Kiwoom analyst Han Ji-young stated that strong fundamentals and appealing valuations should help the KOSPI withstand external pressures, including tariff risks and doubts surrounding the profitability of artificial intelligence-related stocks. He added that further opportunities for upward earnings revisions, supportive valuations, and a neutral foreign flow environment indicate that drivers for growth have not yet been exhausted.
Han also pointed out that Bloomberg’s 12-month consensus target for the KOSPI currently sits in the 6,500 range, highlighting increasing optimism among foreign investors towards Korean equities.
Other firms have also increased their targets in recent days, with Hana Securities projecting 7,900, NH Securities 7,300, and Korea Investment & Securities 7,250.
As of 1:30 p.m., the KOSPI was trading around 5,955, up 1.9 percent.
Institutional investors were the only net buyers, purchasing approximately 2 trillion won ($1.38 billion) worth of shares on the KOSPI. Retail investors weighed on gains with net sales of 1.86 trillion won, while foreign investors were modest net sellers, offloading roughly 150 billion won.
jwc
